How Will Trump Administration Influence Green Truck Initiatives?

From alternative fuels to electric power, technology advances aimed at dropping carbon emissions and improving efficiency have been edging their way into the work truck industry for years.

Companies and fleet managers looking to comply with regulations and drive down costs have prompted a flurry of activity around green technology for commercial vehicles. But with a new presidential administration promising to loosen regulations and debating climate science, it’s not clear if the pace of that activity will keep up in 2017 — or begin to slow down.

Zero-emissions initiatives were among the big topics on the agenda at this year’s Green Truck Summit at the annual Work Truck Show in Indianapolis. Some of the presenters asked to share their thoughts and projections for the coming year said before the show that it’s tough to know exactly where President Trump and his cabinet will land on the topic of emissions.

Wait-and-see approach

“Certainly from the rhetoric we’ve heard out of the incoming administration, it would be feasible to expect some of the regulations to be made less of or rolled back in their entirety,” said Steve Tam, vice-president of ACT Research, a commercial vehicle research firm. “At this point, most of the industry is taking a wait-and-see approach as it relates to emissions and some of the other technologies.”

During the administration of President Barack Obama, expanding environmental regulations and meeting new emissions standards was a key goal. Trump, on the other hand, moved quickly to freeze some of the Environmental Protection Agency’s operations — and then cut them. Reports from the first month of the administration indicated that Trump’s transition team leader was looking to reduce the EPA workforce by two-thirds.

Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, Trump’s pick to lead the EPA, has previously fought with the federal government against the agency, including participating in a lawsuit against an Obama administration policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

It remains unclear if Pruitt will support some policies that have focused efforts on green technology, including allowing California to maintain tougher emissions standards than other parts of the country. California and other West Coast states have been at the heart of work driving changes in the commercial vehicle industry — including on renewable diesel, a focus of one presentation at the Green Truck Summit.

Renewables remain a trend

Gary Lentsch, fleet supervisor for the Eugene Water and Electric Board in Oregon, has been running his fleet on renewable diesel for nearly two years. Not to be confused with biodiesel, renewable diesel is a different type of fuel, made using organic materials, but through a different process.

He said the fuel is a bit more expensive than regular diesel fuel (about 3 cents more), but cheaper than biodiesel, and cleaner. Burning a gallon of diesel puts about 29 pounds of carbon in the air, he said, and biodiesel about 26 pounds. Renewable diesel, on the other hand: 8 pounds.

In Oregon, the technology has caught on. The cities of Eugene and Springfield and local school districts are all using it for their fleets. None of them have had to buy new vehicles to accommodate the new fuel, he said. Lentsch’s fleet has reduced its carbon outputs by 37 percent since making the switch.

Lentsch said he expects the renewable diesel trend to continue to spread, though he’s not sure if it will have support in Washington, D.C.

“With the new administration, it’s going to be tough,” he said. “I think it’s a little more pro-oil, where the other one was a little more friendly this way.”

Other experts, however, aren’t convinced that an administration less interested in environmental regulations will dampen enthusiasm for lowering emissions and going green.

Zero emissions goal still on track

Dave Cooke, senior vehicles analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists, was planning a Green Truck Summit presentation on the path to zero emissions by 2050. It’s a big goal, but he said he thinks major progress toward that target is possible.

One big reason: more commercial vehicle operators are seeing the financial benefits of being more efficient and polluting less.

“In general, at least, that’s one of the things in the heavy duty work space that is very different from passenger vehicle regulations, because there are large-volume buyers and they are very aware of how much they are paying for fuel,” he said. “So the movement toward more environmentally beneficial technologies is primarily about the other kind of green.”

Cooke believes that state and local initiatives aimed at lower emissions will continue, including those in California. He said some of the policies developed during the Obama administration have won support from both environmental groups and private industry, making Congress less likely to take them apart.

“I think everyone looks for long-term certainty to make sure those investments are being made,” he said.

Plenty of questions remain about which types of fuels and technologies will be the most effective and popular, Cooke said. Natural gas, for example, is showing benefits but might not be in great enough supply to make it a long-term option. (Cooke later clarified that he was referring only to renewable sources of natural gas such as from landfills.)

“There is certainly a path from where we are to getting to zero emissions in 2050, but one of the challenges will be where do we need to be in 2030 to make sure we’re (on track),” he said.

Hybrid vehicles are likely to be a major driver of change, said Tam, with ACT Research. He pointed to early prototypes of a hydrogen-electric hybrid truck, introduced by the Nikola Motor Co. in late 2016.

Nuclear option examined

For the Green Truck Summit, Tam said he planned to explore even bigger ideas, like the possibility of nuclear-powered trucks. He said he expects some innovation will be driven by people fascinated by the idea of exploration — even when regulations aren’t the driving factor.

“I think there’s always going to be a contingent of consumers who do like the technology for technology’s sake, or like the performance,” he said.

And it’s not just technology related to powering vehicles. Tam said telematics — the systems that can track and regulate a variety of data about a vehicle’s performance — is likely to keep gaining interest.

“That’s one of those things that’s going to make trucking companies more efficient, hold down logistics costs, and shippers are also excited about this,” he said.

Tam said he’s not sure how Trump’s focus on re-energizing industries like coal and oil will match up with other stated goals, like building up the natural gas industry.

“People keep using the word ‘interesting,’” he said. “It’s going to be something. One thing I’m probably sure it’s not going to be is status quo.”

Erin Golden is a writer based in Minnesota.